Earlier this month, our team attended The Aerospace Event and came away energized by the quality of conversation in the room. Over two days, operators, suppliers, investors, and advisors gathered to share perspectives on a market that is simultaneously recovering, straining, and evolving. What stood out most was the candor: this is an industry that understands its challenges clearly and is actively working through them. We left with sharper insight into what our clients are navigating, and we are glad to share what we heard.
Here are our top takeaways from this year’s event:
1. Production Recovery Is Real, But Fragile
Overall aircraft production has recovered to roughly 87% of its 2018 peak, and renewed OEM focus on shop discipline has driven meaningful output gains. But the recovery is uneven. Wide-body production has only reached 50% of pre-pandemic levels, and major airframers remain far short of their stated production targets. Much of the current momentum is being sustained by drawing down inventory across the supply base, a buffer that will not last indefinitely. The next two to three years will reveal whether this recovery has staying power, and the companies best positioned will be those that have built operational resilience rather than simply ramped to meet near-term demand.
2. The Supply Chain Is Structurally Strained
The data shared at this year’s event reinforced something we hear from clients regularly: the aerospace supply chain is absorbing a level of volatility it was never designed to handle. Forecasting accuracy at the SKU level sits at just 67% for airframe OEMs and 20% for engine manufacturers. Working capital requirements are 4.6 times higher than they were in 2000. Lead times on constrained products have stretched beyond 120 weeks. The Tier 2-3 supplier base, where 74% of companies are over 35 years old and 80% generate less than $50 million in revenue, simply does not have the infrastructure to absorb these pressures without support. Understanding this reality is essential context for any organization making decisions about sourcing, investment, or growth.
3. Fleet Longevity Is Fueling Sustained MRO Growth
One of the clearest opportunities in today’s market is in the aftermarket and MRO space, and the numbers back it up. The average aircraft retirement age has extended from 24 to 27 years, and 81% of the global fleet is now out of warranty. With new aircraft deliveries constrained and operators keeping aging fleets in service longer, demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul services is surging. The aftermarket sector grew at nearly triple the rate of new production in 2025, and engine values have climbed 30-40% since 2023 due to asset scarcity. For those in this space, the opportunity is significant, and the leadership required to capture it is in high demand.
4. Competition for Resources Has Never Been More Intense
Aerospace is no longer competing for talent, materials, and capital only within its own ecosystem. The same suppliers, engineers, and critical minerals that the industry depends on are being pursued by telecom companies, AI data center builders, and medical device manufacturers. Commercial aerospace’s 90-120 day payment terms put it at a real disadvantage against industries that pay faster and with fewer compliance requirements. The strategic response, a push toward regionalized and domestic supply chains, is the right one, but it is a multi-year effort that requires thoughtful leadership to execute.
5. Tariffs and Compliance Are Quietly Eroding Margins
For many Tier 2-3 suppliers, margin pressure is not arriving loudly. It is accumulating quietly through distributor pricing that absorbs tariff costs before a supplier even sees an invoice. Combined with growing cybersecurity compliance mandates, forced labor regulations, and trade agreement uncertainty, the burden is difficult to manage without dedicated resources. Organizations that invest in operational and financial leadership capable of navigating this complexity will have a meaningful advantage.
6. The Workforce Crisis Requires a Long-Term Commitment
Voluntary turnover across the industry is running at 25-27%, and the supplier workforce skews heavily toward workers over 45, with notable gaps in the generations below them. Wage compression is making it harder to compete with other industries for skilled talent, and automation remains out of reach for many smaller businesses. The companies making real progress are those that have committed to long-term workforce development, building partnerships with trade schools and creating pipelines starting at the middle and high school level. This is not a short-term fix, and it requires the kind of dedicated, experienced leadership that can build culture and capability simultaneously.
What This Means for You
The aerospace industry is growing, and the opportunities are real. But capturing them requires more than market awareness. It requires the right people in the right roles, leaders who understand the complexity of this environment and can navigate it with confidence. Whether you are managing supply chain pressure, scaling an MRO operation, or building the next generation of your workforce, we are here to help you find and place the talent that will move your organization forward.
About the Authors
Austin Mitchell
Managing Director
amitchell@mbexec.com
949.529.2679
Austin Mitchell serves as a Managing Director at McDermott + Bull and is part of the firm’s Aerospace + Defense and Industrial Practice, based in Phoenix, Arizona. He partners with private equity firms, corporate clients, and privately held businesses, focusing on executive search solutions that drive leadership excellence and business growth.
With over five years of experience in executive search, Austin has honed his expertise in all facets of the search process, including research, recruiting, and client management. Before joining McDermott + Bull, he worked at a global contingent search firm, specializing in technical roles within construction and industrial services.
Aaron Griffin
Managing Director
agriffin@mbexec.com
310.560.9774
Aaron Griffin serves as a Managing Director at McDermott + Bull and is part of the firm’s Aviation, Aerospace, + Defense Practice, based in Los Angeles. He has over 10 years of experience in executive search, supporting clients in aviation, aerospace, and transportation with their most critical hires.
Aaron brings strong expertise leading searches on a global scale. His executive network encompasses the aerospace manufacturing supply chain, aviation airport services, and the wider transportation landscape, enabling him to provide world-class talent to his clients.